The Central Statistical Office released estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of FY 2018-19, both for the constant prices (2011-12) and current values. Reflecting the economy of the economy, GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2018-19 touched 8.2 percent in real terms, more than 7.7 percent recorded in the last quarter of FY 2017-18. Shows a better position. The basis of this development is quite widespread and it has been possible to increase the consumption expenditure by 8.4% and due to a significant increase of 10.0% in fixed investment. Especially growth in fixed investment has been very encouraging because it reflects the growth seen in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2017-18 compared to a remarkable increase of 14.4 percent recorded. not only this, This statistic is also giving good indication of future development. So, what is the assumption that the pace of development is now coming to the right track?
8.2 percent of GDP
The overall growth rate of 8.2 percent, the growth rate of 13.5 percent in the manufacturing sector and the growth rate of more than 10 percent in capital creation shows that the pace of development is now catching up.
In 2018-19, the country’s growth rate is expected to further accelerate as India will continue to be the fastest growing economy in the world.
From the 8.2 percent GDP growth rate in the first quarter of FY 2018-19 it is a clear indication that the structural reforms implemented in the country, such as good results of GST, have now started to come.
The growth rate of 13.5 percent in the manufacturing sector also indicates a significant improvement in demand. It reflects the remarkable momentum of economic growth in the last four quarters, which has been calculated as 6.3, 7, 7.7 percent and now 8.2 percent, respectively.
In the agricultural sector where it was being said that the increase is not happening, an increase of 5.3 percent has been recorded. This figure was 3 percent in the same period last year.
Manufacturing sector has grown by 13.5 percent, compared to 1.8 percent in the previous period. That is, this figure is quite high. The manufacturing sector grew by 8.7 per cent, compared to 1.8 per cent in the same period last year. The growth rate in the manufacturing and manufacturing sector is in direct mean employment, i.e. such a job in which less read people are more likely to get employment.
The above statistics are encouraging, it needs to be maintained. Such figures in the economy like India can be considered better.
Important core sectors such as crude oil, gas, refinery, electricity, cement are being manufactured or procured, this creates the possibility that we are moving forward towards long-term growth.
If we continue to grow for the next one year by the rate at which we are increasing due to improvement, economic strength will increase and this will be a good sign for the global community.
Our investments will grow and corporate sector, private corporate sector, business community will come forward for investment within India.
Increasing investment will increase production facilities and our imports will be reduced and external issues will be solved.
Is this increase in GDP due to economic reforms?
If it is increasing, then it is easy to say that it is the result of steps taken for economic reforms, such as exemplary and GST. Especially in the case of GST These improvements are now proven to be effective.
Our GDP was better in 2016. At that time the growth rate of the economy was 9.3 percent. The reason for this was that the economy which was in the slowdown stage had come back on track. After that these two important improvements have been made.
Whenever there is a major change, its direct effect is seen first. Suddenly everything is not organized.
All the issues or effects of GST or the implementation of its implementation or the weakness in understanding it has become clear now. For example, things related to slab have been solved to a great extent and GST’s benefits in the economy are now starting to appear.
Current statistics of GDP are so important that we are continuously increasing in the last four or five quarters. Coming from 5.3 percent to 6.7 percent of GDP and reaching 8.2 percent after 7.7 percent, it shows that the quarterly growth rate is going in the right direction. Hope this growth will continue even further.
The manufacturing sector is moving in the right direction with an increase of 5.3 percent. The growth rate of manufacturing and agriculture sector is also very encouraging.
The growth rate seen in the agriculture sector has improved for the last few years, which is very important for the manufacturing sector. Because prosperity in rural areas comes due to increase in agriculture. Even now, 67 to 68 percent of the country’s population lives in villages.
When the agricultural sector increases, resources for the unskilled youth are created, the income increases and the manufacturing sector is developed because when the income is increased, then people will spend more money on their daily needs made from the manufacturing sector.
Increasing the manufacturing sector increases the service sector. If the agricultural sector continues to maintain growth rate of 5 percent further then there will be an increase in the manufacturing sector in the coming years.
We are coming back to business with the increase in the manufacturing and manufacturing sector.
Challenge to retain growth rate
Surely, due to economic reforms, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has seen a sharp increase. India has become the sixth largest economy on the basis of GDP, but there are many challenges before the economy. The rupee and the rising prices of crude oil have increased India’s concern over the dollar.
We need to focus on external challenges such as fall in value of money, balance of payment, trade deficit and current account deficit.
In the past days, there has been a lot of increase in domestic improvements or improvement which seems to get a lot of benefit. It is now also required to be linked with external areas as it will be a big challenge to remain in a competitive global economy.
We have to strengthen our external sector because when we do import more, its direct impact is seen as an increase in trade deficit and increase in current account deficit, which affects the currency.
When the currency is affected, our imports become more expensive, which are likely to affect the whole economy, which is a concern for us. Therefore, efforts should be made to bring back the export growth.
From a global perspective, our global growth rate is 4 percent. With this increase, if we increase the quantity of exports, then our trade deficit will be good, which will benefit all the businesses.
Some things need to be seriously considered, for example GST Collection The average collection of one lakh crores per month should be regular in GST.
Last month i.e., a GST collection of 98 thousand crores was collected in July, while in August collection of 93 thousand crores was collected. This collection has been done in all services due to tax deduction.
Crude oil prices are rising at a different pace. It is a work that no one is subdued. It does not belong to any government. The impact of rising prices of crude oil is also visible, such as inflation rate and inflation etc.
Despite this increase, if one is the biggest challenge, then it is the management of crude oil prices.
One time service area was increasing at the rate of 12 to 13 percent, but statistics show that this increase has gone near the manufacturing sector. Reaching around the growth rate of service sector 6.5 certainly indicates the problem in this area, due to competition in telecommunication.
If the service sector increases by 10 percent, the agriculture sector 5 percent, the manufacturing sector at 13.5 percent, the dream of 8 to 10 percent is difficult to achieve, but not impossible.
It is important to keep the GDP continuously because it is a big challenge for the economy due to trade warfare. Some economic experts are also looking at trade-war as an opportunity for India.
We need to keep track of the current account deficit rate, so it is very important to increase exports. India is not such an economy that relies on currency. Till the currency will not be strong, the job will not work, it will only happen when our exports increase.
How GST Collection Is Stable?
After the initial flaws in the implementation of GST, the government is now able to implement this biggest tax reform.
The changes that were going to happen in GST are almost but some other changes are needed. We have to reduce the slab. There will be ups and downs in the collection but it will definitely be very stable.
It’s been a year since the arrival of GST is expected to bring more simplicity in the coming time.
There is a need to focus on stability in the collection. According to the statistics, we can say that the collection is stable and it will be stronger in the coming time.
Just as the simplification of GST takes almost a hundred years, so can it take time to get the GST stabilized.
Is the ban on bonding started now?
The Opposition often questions whether the country has benefited from the ban on bondage. But no one gets noticed that banks cut interest rates up to 1% in one year after the ban on bonds.
Cashless transactions were greatly boosted after the note-offs. Not only this, in the fight against black money, the decision of bank robbery took a lot, because 17.92 lakhs were identified as those whose bank accounts did not match their income.
The filing of Income Tax Return has increased by 71 percent. One of the reasons for this increase is the ban on bondage, which is why people have a fear of income tax returns.
Tax administration needs further improvement. Tax administration can be improved in two ways, one is transparency and another is to create an environment of fear.
Many such people are now filing income tax returns that have never been filed before. They had an idea that nothing in the system could happen. But the coffin has given a positive message to the public against it.
If crude oil prices do not stop, what is the option?
Now such measures have become indispensable, which reduces our dependence on oil. For this, the government will promote electric vehicles. Tax rates on such vehicles should be kept low and subsidies should be given if necessary.
The work that is to be done at war level in the economy is to work on crude oil options. It’s been a matter of time to drive cars and bikes from electricity but it is not visible at the grassroots level.
The details of solar energy have long been heard but there is no visible improvement at ground level. However, the move taken by India towards solar energy has been universally appreciated.
With the price of oil being $ 100 a barrel, the economy of the country has come under pressure. India and China are the biggest consumers of oil If only the demand of these two countries decreases, the price of oil will automatically decrease.
At the war level, it should be done that at least two years the car and bike will be brought on solar and electrical systems. If this happens then the problem of oil will be solved to a great extent.
To save the country from the inflation of petrol and diesel, the government will focus on renewing energy policy for renewal so that the economic difficulties arising due to rising prices of petrol and diesel can be reduced.
Which factors are behind the statistics of agriculture?
The current statistics of the agriculture sector, which have not been on the rise, have always been charged by governments, are better. Due to the doubling of the income of the farmers, double production will increase, the scope of its business will be increased which will benefit the farmers.
About 50% of the population of the country is dependent on agriculture, its total world food and agri import is around $ 13000 million, and India’s share is only $ 30 million, which is less than 1 percent, while our economy is agricultural. . It needs to be increased further.
The recent Economic Survey states that we have a capacity of $ 100 million. Thus it is less than $ 70 million which can be increased through food processing. There is no external input in it.
The growth rate of agriculture sector is above 5 percent. If we increase this rate then we will not need to take input from the outside.
We should try to send our agricultural products out. If it increases by 30 billion dollars then the income of the farmers will start doubling.
Employment has increased or not?
GDP statistics come when the statistics of agriculture, manufacturing, construction, are added and then the question arises repeatedly with the political corridor that success in the field of employment is not being achieved.
GDP statistics indicate the increase in employment. After the reforms of 1999, our growth rates began to grow in a good direction in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005, followed by the Golden period, where we increased with 8.9 percent.
After that, Lehman Crisis influenced our growth rate fell down and then we came on track and came up with Euro Crisis which has affected growth.
As far as employment is concerned, the way in which GDP was increasing due to the increase in employment, the employment was not increased. It has responsible structural problems.
The service sector contribution is much higher in the economy but the employment that is being created in this sector is not proportional but the agriculture sector, which contributes only 15 to 16 percent of GDP, depends on the dependence is very high. Still 50 percent of the country’s labor force is dependent on agriculture.
Talking about the manufacturing sector, it contributes 20 to 25 percent in GDP but employment generation is not in that proportion.
The biggest dependence of employment on the agricultural sector which is not able to increase, the resources of employment have become limited. Employment is not high in the service sector.
Needing to give a good direction to the manufacturing sector that can generate employment.
The effect that make in India’s manufacturing sector will be visible in the coming time and will lead to the creation of employment. We need to think about how jobs will be created.
Despite the fastest growth rate, just like many other countries in the world, India’s economy is also facing challenges on many fronts. The worrisome situation of agricultural, rural economy, the challenges of employment creation and poor performance in the economic sector are the main problems of India. Many times these three challenges challenge the steps of fast moving forward on the path of economic growth, simultaneously or alternatively. The economy, employment and agriculture sector are all associated with each other in such a way that the change brought in any one affects both of them. It is necessary for any mechanism to have better functioning ability by any mechanism that all its organs are connected to each other in a coordinated manner. Just as in the human body the blood is transmitted in every corner of the body by mutual harmony between the heart, blood and arteries, in the same way the economy, By combining society and agriculture together, we can achieve real growth. The problem is also that we study these components of economic development separately, economists worry only about the economy and the sociologist talks about social concerns. To maintain the pace of development, there is a need to create a system that can make them accountable to each other, by changing the prevailing methods.